Consumer and Market Drivers of the Trial Probability of New Consumer Packaged Goods

47 Pages Posted: 1 Oct 2003

See all articles by Jan‐Benedict EM Steenkamp

Jan‐Benedict EM Steenkamp

University of North Carolina (UNC) at Chapel Hill - Marketing Area

Katrijn Gielens

Erasmus University Rotterdam (EUR) - Erasmus School of Economics (ESE)

Multiple version iconThere are 2 versions of this paper

Date Written: February 2003

Abstract

We examine the effect of consumer and market factors on the trial probability of new consumer packaged goods. We distinguish between three sources of variation in consumer trial probability: 1) within new products, across consumers; 2) within new products, over time; and 3) across new products. Hypotheses are developed for the different variables concerning their likely effect on trial probability. The hypotheses are tested on weekly household-panel scanner data on the occurrence and timing of first purchases for 239 new consumer packaged goods over a fifty-two week period after introduction for a sample of over 3,500 consumers. We combine these household panel purchase data with consumer questionnaire data, retail scanner data, data on advertising expenditure, and expert ratings. We find support for most hypotheses. One of our main findings is that the effects of the consumers' personal makeup on their probability to try the new product are systematically moderated by elements of the marketing strategy associated with the new product and by category characteristics. The extensive data set provides a strong context for the generalizability of the findings.

Suggested Citation

Steenkamp, Jan-Benedict E. M. and Gielens, Katrijn, Consumer and Market Drivers of the Trial Probability of New Consumer Packaged Goods (February 2003). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=380180 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.380180

Jan-Benedict E. M. Steenkamp (Contact Author)

University of North Carolina (UNC) at Chapel Hill - Marketing Area ( email )

CB 3490
Chapel Hill, NC 27599
United States
919-962-9579 (Phone)

HOME PAGE: http://www.kenan-flagler.unc.edu/Faculty/search/detail.cfm?person_id=860

Katrijn Gielens

Erasmus University Rotterdam (EUR) - Erasmus School of Economics (ESE) ( email )

P.O. Box 1738
3000 DR Rotterdam, NL 3062 PA
Netherlands
+31 10 408 8635 (Phone)
+31 10 408 9011 (Fax)

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