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Testing Market Efficiency Using Statistical Arbitrage with Applications to Momentum and Value Strategies
Steve Hogan Credit Suisse First Boston Robert A. Jarrow Cornell University - Samuel Curtis Johnson Graduate School of Management Melvyn Teo Singapore Management University - School of Business Mitch Warachka Singapore Management University - School of Business April 15, 2003 Abstract: This paper introduces the concept of statistical arbitrage, a long horizon trading opportunity that generates a riskless profit and is designed to exploit persistent anomalies. Statistical arbitrage circumvents the "joint hypothesis" dilemma of traditional market efficiency tests because its definition is independent of any equilibrium model and its existence is incompatible with market efficiency. We provide a methodology to test for statistical arbitrage and then empirically investigate whether momentum and value trading strategies constitute statistical arbitrage opportunities. Despite controlling for transaction costs and the influence of small stocks, we find evidence that these strategies generate statistical arbitrage. Furthermore, their profitability does not appear to decline over time.
Keywords: market efficiency, statistical arbitrage, arbitrage, momentum, value JEL Classifications: G12, G14 Working Paper SeriesDate posted: May 25, 2003 ; Last revised: June 11, 2003Suggested CitationContact Information
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