Capital Structure, Credit Risk, and Macroeconomic Conditions
40 Pages Posted: 23 Apr 2003
Date Written: May 2004
Abstract
This paper develops a framework for analyzing the impact of macroeconomic conditions on credit risk and dynamic capital structure choice. We begin by observing that when cash flows depend on current economic conditions, there will be a benefit for firms to adapt their default and financing policies to the position of the economy in the business cycle phase. We then demonstrate that this simple observation has a wide range of implications for corporations. Notably, we show that our model can replicate observed debt levels and the countercyclicality of leverage ratios. We also demonstrate that it can reproduce the observed term structure of credit spreads and generate strictly positive credit spreads for very short maturities. Finally, we characterize the impact of macroeconomic conditions on the pace and size of capital structure changes, and debt capacity. A number of new predictions follow.
Keywords: Dynamic Capital Structure, Credit Spreads, Macroeconomic Conditions
JEL Classification: G12, G32, G33
Suggested Citation: Suggested Citation
Do you have negative results from your research you’d like to share?
Recommended Papers
-
What Do We Know About Capital Structure? Some Evidence from International Data
By Raghuram G. Rajan and Luigi Zingales
-
The Theory and Practice of Corporate Finance: Evidence from the Field
By John R. Graham and Campbell R. Harvey
-
The Theory and Practice of Corporate Finance: The Data
By John R. Graham and Campbell R. Harvey
-
Market Timing and Capital Structure
By Malcolm P. Baker and Jeffrey Wurgler
-
Market Timing and Capital Structure
By Malcolm P. Baker and Jeffrey Wurgler
-
Testing Tradeoff and Pecking Order Predictions About Dividends and Debt
By Eugene F. Fama and Kenneth R. French
-
Testing Static Trade-Off Against Pecking Order Models of Capital Structure
-
Optimal Capital Structure Under Corporate and Personal Taxation
By Harry Deangelo and Ronald W. Masulis