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New Drug Development: Estimating Entry from Human Clinical Trials

Christopher Adams
Federal Trade Commission - Bureau of Economics

Van V. Brantner
Federal Trade Commission - Bureau of Economics

July 7, 2003

FTC Bureau of Economics Working Paper No. 262

Abstract:
This paper analyses a detailed data set on drugs in human clinical trials around the world between 1989 and 2002. The data provides information on the probabilities with which drugs successfully complete the different phases of the trials and the durations of successful completions. The paper shows that success rates and durations can vary substantially across observable characteristics of the drugs, including primary indication, originating company, route of administration and chemistry. It suggests that analysis of this type of data can help us to answer questions such as: Do AIDS drugs get to market faster? Do Biotech drugs have higher probabilities of getting to market? This paper provides some general statistics for analyzing these questions.

Keywords: Pharmaceuticals, research and development, new drugs

JEL Classifications: L65, O32, I10

Working Paper Series

Date posted: September 12, 2003 ; Last revised: September 12, 2003

Suggested Citation

Adams, Christopher and Brantner, Van V., New Drug Development: Estimating Entry from Human Clinical Trials (July 7, 2003). FTC Bureau of Economics Working Paper No. 262. Available at SSRN: http://ssrn.com/abstract=428040 or doi:10.2139/ssrn.428040

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Contact Information

Christopher Adams (Contact Author) Federal Trade Commission - Bureau of Economics ( email ) 601 Pennsylvania Avenue, NW Rm. 4210 Washington, DC 20580 United States 202-326-2592 (Phone) 202-326-3443 (Fax)
Van V. Brantner Federal Trade Commission - Bureau of Economics ( email ) 601 Pennsylvania Avenue, NW Washington, DC 20580 United States 202-326-2947 (Phone)