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Contagious Currency CrisesBarry EichengreenUniversity of California, Berkeley - Department of Economics; National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER); Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR) Andrew K. RoseUniversity of California - Haas School of Business; National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER); Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR) Charles WyploszUniversity of Geneva - Graduate Institute of International Studies (HEI); Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR) July 1996 NBER Working Paper No. w5681 Abstract: This paper is concerned with the fact that the incidence of speculative attacks tends to be temporally correlated; that is, currency crises appear to pass contagiously from one country to another. The paper provides a survey of the theoretical literature, and analyzes the contagious nature of currency crises empirically. Using thirty years of panel data from twenty industrialized countries, we find evidence of contagion. Contagion appears to spread more easily to countries which are closely tied by international trade linkages than to countries in similar macroeconomic circumstances.
Number of Pages in PDF File: 50 working papers seriesDate posted: October 3, 1996Suggested CitationContact Information
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