The Survival of Noise Traders in Financial Markets
J. Bradford DeLong
University of California, Berkeley; Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco; National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)
Harvard University - Department of Economics; National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER); European Corporate Governance Institute (ECGI)
Lawrence H. Summers
Harvard University; National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)
Universita di Roma Tor Vergata; National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)
NBER Working Paper No. w2715
We use the revised estimates of U.S. GNP constructed by Christina Romer (1989) to assess the time-series properties of U.S. output per capita over the past century. We reject at conventional significance levels the null that output is a random walk in favor of the alternative that output is a stationary autoregressive process about a linear deterministic trend. The difference between the lack of persistence of output shocks either before WWII or over the entire century, on the one hand, and the strong signs of persistence of output shocks found by Campbell and Mankiw (1987) and by Nelson and Plosser (1982) for more recent periods is striking. It suggests to us a Keynesian interpretation of the large unit root in post-WWII U.S. output: perhaps post-WWII output shocks appear persistent because automatic stabilizers and other demand-management policies have substantially damped the transitory fluctuations that made up the pre-WWH Bums-Mitchell business cycle.
Number of Pages in PDF File: 25working papers series
Date posted: January 8, 2008
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