An Unbiased Measure of Realized Variance

Abstract:     
The realized variance (RV) is known to be biased because intraday returns are contaminated with market microstructure noise, in particular if intraday returns are sampled at high frequencies. In this paper, we characterize the bias under a general specification for the market microstructure noise, where the noise may be autocorrelated and need not be independent of the latent price process. Within this framework, we propose a simple Newey-West type correction of the RV that yields an unbiased measure of volatility, and we characterize the optimal unbiased RV in terms of the mean squared error criterion. Our empirical analysis of the 30 stocks of the Dow Jones Industrial Average index shows the necessity of our general assumptions about the noise process. Further, the empirical results show that the modified RV is unbiased even if intraday returns are sampled every second.

Keywords: Realized variance, realized volatility, high-frequency data, integrated variance

JEL Classifications: C10, C22, C80

Working Paper Series