Oil Price Shocks and Real GDP Growth: Empirical Evidence for Some OECD Countries
University of Salamanca - Departamento de Economia e Historia Economica
European Central Bank (ECB)
ECB Working Paper No. 362
This paper assesses empirically the effects of oil price shocks on the real economic activity of the main industrialised countries. Multivariate VAR analysis is carried out using both linear and non-linear models. The latter category includes three approaches employed in the literature, namely, the asymmetric, scaled and net specifications. We find evidence of a non-linear impact of oil prices on real GDP. In particular, oil price increases are found to have an impact on GDP growth of a larger magnitude than that of oil price declines, with the latter being statistically insignificant in most cases. Among oil importing countries, oil price increases are found to have a negative impact on economic activity in all cases but Japan. Moreover, the effect of oil shocks on GDP growth differs between the two oil exporting countries in our sample, with oil price increases affecting the UK negatively and Norway positively.
Number of Pages in PDF File: 66
Keywords: Macroeconomic fluctuations, oil price shock, non-linear models
JEL Classification: E32, Q43working papers series
Date posted: December 1, 2004
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