Abstract

http://ssrn.com/abstract=5500
 
 

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New Evidence on the Value of Public Information in Commodity Markets


Philip Garcia


University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign - Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics

Scott H. Irwin


University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign - Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics

Raymond M. Leuthold


University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign - Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics

Li Yang


Western Michigan University


OFOR Working Paper Number 94-04

Abstract:     
The informational value of USDA corn and soybean production forecasts is investigated for the period 1971-1992. Three tests of informational content are considered: i) a relative forecast accuracy test, ii) a price reaction test, and iii) a willingness-to-pay test. Overall, the results suggest USDA corn and soybean forecasts provide valuable information to commodity markets. This value, however, does appear to have declined, especially since the mid-1980s. This is consistent with large declines in the cost of information due to technological improvements in computers, communications equipment, remote-sensing satellites, etc.

JEL Classification: 14

working papers series





Not Available For Download

Date posted: October 29, 2000  

Suggested Citation

Garcia, Philip and Irwin, Scott H. and Leuthold, Raymond M. and Yang, Li, New Evidence on the Value of Public Information in Commodity Markets. OFOR Working Paper Number 94-04. Available at SSRN: http://ssrn.com/abstract=5500

Contact Information

Philip Garcia
University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign - Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics ( email )
1301 W. Gregory Drive
427 Mumford Hall
Urbana, IL 61801
United States
217-333-0644 (Phone)
217-333-5538 (Fax)
Scott H. Irwin
University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign - Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics ( email )
1301 W. Gregory Drive
326 Mumford Hall, MC-710
Urbana, IL 61801
United States
Raymond M. Leuthold (Contact Author)
University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign - Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics ( email )
1301 W. Gregory Drive
312 Mumford Hall
Urbana, IL 61801
United States
217-333-1811 (Phone)
217-333-5538 (Fax)
Li Yang
Western Michigan University
Dept. of Computer Science
Kalamazoo, MI 49008
United States
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