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Measuring Default Risk Premia from Default Swap Rates and EDFs


Antje Berndt


Carnegie Mellon University - Tepper School of Business

Rohan Douglas


Cornell University

Darrell Duffie


Stanford University - Graduate School of Business

Mark Ferguson


affiliation not provided to SSRN

David Schranz


Cornell University


BIS Working Paper No. 173
EFA 2004 Maastricht Meetings Paper No. 5121

Abstract:     
This paper estimates recent default risk premia for U.S. corporate debt, based on a close relationship between default probabilities, as estimated by Moody's KMV EDFs, and default swap (CDS) market rates. The default-swap data, obtained through CIBC from 22 banks and specialty dealers, allow us to establish a strong link between actual and risk-neutral default probabilities for the 69 firms in the three sectors that we analyze: broadcasting and entertainment, healthcare, and oil and gas. We find dramatic variation over time in risk premia, from peaks in the third quarter of 2002, dropping by roughly 50% to late 2003.

Number of Pages in PDF File: 56

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Date posted: June 23, 2004  

Suggested Citation

Berndt, Antje, Douglas, Rohan, Duffie, Darrell , Ferguson, Mark and Schranz, David, Measuring Default Risk Premia from Default Swap Rates and EDFs. BIS Working Paper No. 173; EFA 2004 Maastricht Meetings Paper No. 5121. Available at SSRN: http://ssrn.com/abstract=556080 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.556080

Contact Information

Antje Berndt (Contact Author)
Carnegie Mellon University - Tepper School of Business ( email )
5000 Forbes Avenue
Tepper School of Business
Pittsburgh, PA 15213-3890
United States
412-268-1871 (Phone)
Rohan Douglas
Cornell University
Ithaca, NY 14853
United States
James Darrell Duffie
Stanford University - Graduate School of Business ( email )
518 Memorial Way
Stanford, CA 94305-5015
United States
650-723-1976 (Phone)
650-725-7979 (Fax)

Mark Ferguson
affiliation not provided to SSRN
No Address Available
David Schranz
Cornell University
Ithaca, NY 14853
United States
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