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Will History Rhyme? The Past as Financial Future

William N. Goetzmann

Yale School of Management - International Center for Finance; National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)

July 26, 2004

Yale ICF Working Paper No. 04-19

History demonstrates that global capital markets can contract as well as expand. A long-term view of finance suggests that we should prepare for periodic segmentation as well as integration of markets in the 21st Century. Anti-capitalist ideologies have historically been the vectors of attack on the cross-border flow of capital, however the fundamental cause may actually be domestic hostility towards foreign ownership and control. The roots of the conflict between domestic interests and foreign investors may be inherent in global equilibrium models. In a frictionless capital market, foreigners will always own a greater proportion of a small economy's assets. By the same token, domestic investors in small economies will always seek to export most of their capital. This equilibrium is at odds with a stable condition of national ownership and control of assets.

Number of Pages in PDF File: 23

Keywords: Imperialism, International Finance, Diversification

JEL Classification: N23, N24, F3

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Date posted: June 29, 2004  

Suggested Citation

Goetzmann, William N., Will History Rhyme? The Past as Financial Future (July 26, 2004). Yale ICF Working Paper No. 04-19. Available at SSRN: http://ssrn.com/abstract=560024

Contact Information

William N. Goetzmann (Contact Author)
Yale School of Management - International Center for Finance ( email )
165 Whitney Ave.
P.O. Box 208200
New Haven, CT 06520-8200
United States
203-432-5950 (Phone)
203-436-9252 (Fax)
HOME PAGE: http://viking.som.yale.edu

National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)
1050 Massachusetts Avenue
Cambridge, MA 02138
United States
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