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Corporate Investment and Asset Price Dynamics: Implications for SEO Event Studies and Long-Run PerformanceMurray CarlsonUniversity of British Columbia - Sauder School of Business Adlai J. FisherUniversity of British Columbia - Sauder School of Business Ron GiammarinoUniversity of British Columbia - Sauder School of Business December 5, 2004 7th Annual Texas Finance Festival Paper Sauder School of Business Working Paper Abstract: We present a rational theory of return behavior around seasoned equity offerings, including a pre-issuance price runup, negative announcement effect, and long-run post-issuance underperformance. The main result uses real option principles to relate SEO's to an endogenous decrease in expected returns. Equity issues are associated with firm expansions. When firms invest, they convert growth options to assets in place. Even when the new assets are risky, they will be less risky than the options they replace. Although both size and book-to-market effects are present in our model, standard matching procedures fail to capture the dynamics of risk and expected return. We calibrate the model, and show that it gives a close match to the primary empirical moments.
Number of Pages in PDF File: 33 Keywords: Event studies, SEOs, Long-Run Performance, dynamic corporate decisions JEL Classification: G14, G3, G32, C32, C51 working papers seriesDate posted: May 16, 2005Suggested CitationContact Information
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