The Effects of Natural Disasters and Economic Volatility on Fertility

Abstract:     
This paper examines whether economic or environmental instability affects fertility. My identification strategy uses regional data to exploit the natural variation within each of the two countries I examine: one European country - Italy - and one Asian country - Japan. I use the variance of the detrended wage to measure economic volatility; the crude death rate to measure mortality risk; and the number and magnitudes of natural disasters to measure environmental instability. According to my results, natural disasters have a significant negative effect on fertility in both countries, while mortality risk and economic volatility have significant negative effects in Italy but no effect in Japan. Thus, instability, particularly that arising from the natural environment, appears to cause a decrease in fertility.

Keywords: Natural disasters, economic demography, instability, volatility, fertility, population growth, demography

JEL Classifications: N30, N50, J10

Working Paper Series