The Trading Profitability of Forecasts of the Gilt-Equity Yield Ratio

Abstract:     
Research has highlighted the usefulness of the Gilt-Equity Yield Ratio (GEYR) as a predictor of UK stock returns. This paper extends recent studies by endogenising the threshold at which GEYR switches from being low to being high or vice versa, thus improving the arbitrary nature of the determination of the threshold employed in the extant literature. It is observed that a decision rule for investing in equities or bonds, based on the forecasts from a regime switching model, yields higher average returns with lower variability than a static portfolio containing any combinations of equities and bonds. A closer inspection of the results reveals that the model has power to forecast when investors should steer clear of equities, although the trading profits generated are insufficient to outweigh the associated transactions costs.

Keywords: GEYR, Markov switching, regime model, forecasting, equity & bond returns, trading rule

JEL Classification: C22, G11

Accepted Paper Series