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Deal or No Deal? Decision Making under Risk in a Large-Payoff Game ShowThierry PostKoc University - Graduate School of Business Martijn J. Van den AssemErasmus University Rotterdam (EUR) - Erasmus School of Economics (ESE) Guido BaltussenErasmus University Rotterdam (EUR) - Erasmus School of Economics (ESE) Richard H. ThalerUniversity of Chicago - Booth School of Business; National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) February 20, 2012 American Economic Review, Vol. 98, No. 1, pp. 38-71, March 2008 Abstract: We examine the risky choices of contestants in the popular TV game show "Deal or No Deal" and related classroom experiments. Contrary to the traditional view of expected utility theory, the choices can be explained in large part by previous outcomes experienced during the game. Risk aversion decreases after earlier expectations have been shattered by unfavorable outcomes or surpassed by favorable outcomes. Our results point to reference-dependent choice theories such as prospect theory, and suggest that path-dependence is relevant, even when the choice problems are simple and well-defined, and when large real monetary amounts are at stake.
Number of Pages in PDF File: 50 Keywords: Decision making under risk, Expected utility theory, Prospect theory JEL Classification: D81 Accepted Paper SeriesDate posted: December 16, 2004 ; Last revised: February 21, 2012Suggested CitationContact Information
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