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The Cross-Section of Foreign Currency Risk Premia and Consumption Growth Risk


Hanno N. Lustig


UCLA - Anderson School of Management; National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)

Adrien Verdelhan


Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) - Sloan School of Management; National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)

August 2006

EFA 2005 Moscow Meetings

Abstract:     
Aggregate consumption growth risk explains why low interest rate currencies do not appreciate as much as the interest rate differential and why high interest rate currencies do not depreciate as much as the interest rate differential. We sort foreign T-bills into portfolios based on the nominal interest rate differential with the US, and we test the Euler equation of a US investor who invests in these currency portfolios. US investors earn negative excess returns on low interest rate currency portfolios and positive excess returns on high interest rates currency portfolios. We find that low interest rate currencies provide US investors with a hedge against US aggregate consumption growth risk, because these currencies appreciate on average when US consumption growth is low, while high interest rate currencies depreciate when US consumption growth is low.

Number of Pages in PDF File: 51

Keywords: Asset Pricing, Exchange Rates

JEL Classification: G12, F30

working papers series


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Date posted: January 12, 2005  

Suggested Citation

Lustig, Hanno N. and Verdelhan, Adrien, The Cross-Section of Foreign Currency Risk Premia and Consumption Growth Risk (August 2006). EFA 2005 Moscow Meetings. Available at SSRN: http://ssrn.com/abstract=647628 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.647628

Contact Information

Hanno N. Lustig (Contact Author)
UCLA - Anderson School of Management ( email )
405 Hilgard Avenue
Box 951361
Los Angeles, CA 90095
United States
National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)
1050 Massachusetts Avenue
Cambridge, MA 02138
United States
Adrien Verdelhan
Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) - Sloan School of Management ( email )
77 Massachusetts Ave.
E62-369
Cambridge, MA 02142
United States
National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) ( email )
1050 Massachusetts Avenue
Cambridge, MA 02138
United States
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