Abstract

http://ssrn.com/abstract=653124
 


 



The Brazilian Social Security: What Has Been Done and What Should Be Still Reformed?


Fabio Giambiagi


Banco Nacional de Desenvolvimento Econômico e Social (BNDES) - Department of Economico

João Luis De Oliveira Mendonça


Institute of Applied Economic Research (IPEA)

Kaizo I. Beltrao


National School of Statistics from the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics - ENCE/IBGE

Vagner Laerte Ardeo Sr.


Fundacao Getulio Vargas (FGV)


Pesquisa e Planejamento Economico, Vol. 34, No. 3, December 2004

Abstract:     
During the last years, the most important cause for the Social Security imbalance was the difference between revenues and expenditures related with retired people of the Public Administration. However, looking to the trends of the data, it is clear that the source of increase of total Social Security expenditures was the INSS, which increased from 2.5% of GDP in 1988 - when the then "New Constitution" was approved - to almost 5% of GDP in 1994 - when the Real Plan was launched - and an estimated 7.3% of GDP in 2004. The reasons for this phenomena were associated to the retirement rules, the impact of the real increases of minimum wage and the low growth of the economy. To change this trend requires changing the Constitution, with emphasis to the necessity of: a) define a minimum age to retirement; b) review the rule favorable to women; and c) eliminate the linkage between the mimimum wage and the Social Security floor. The paper presents a diagnosis of the Social Security imbalances in Brazil, suggests a set of proposals to attack the problem and estimates the evolution of the INSS expenditures under different circumstances.

Keywords: Public Finances, Social Security

JEL Classification: E62, H55

Accepted Paper Series





Not Available For Download

Date posted: January 24, 2005  

Suggested Citation

Giambiagi, Fabio and Mendonça, João Luis de Oliveira and Beltrao, Kaizo I. and Ardeo, Vagner Laerte, The Brazilian Social Security: What Has Been Done and What Should Be Still Reformed?. Pesquisa e Planejamento Economico, Vol. 34, No. 3, December 2004. Available at SSRN: http://ssrn.com/abstract=653124

Contact Information

Fabio Giambiagi (Contact Author)
Banco Nacional de Desenvolvimento Econômico e Social (BNDES) - Department of Economico ( email )
Area de Planejamento
Rio de Janeiro, Sala 1428
Brazil
+55 21 277 7844/7371 (Phone)
+55 21 220 1397 (Fax)
João Luis De Oliveira Mendonça
Institute of Applied Economic Research (IPEA) ( email )
Av. Pres. Antonio Carlos , 51 - 17 andar
Rio de Janeiro, RJ, 20020-010
Brazil
Kaizo I. Beltrao
National School of Statistics from the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics - ENCE/IBGE ( email )
Rua Andre Cavalcanti, 106
Rio de Janeiro, RJ 20081-1
Brazil
+55 21 224 7677 (Phone)
+55 21 262 6330 (Fax)
Vagner Laerte Ardeo Sr.
Fundacao Getulio Vargas (FGV) ( email )
R. Dr. Neto de Araujo 320 cj 1307
Rio de Janeiro, Rio de Janeiro 22250-900
Brazil
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