Forecasting for Marketing
J. Scott Armstrong
University of Pennsylvania - Marketing Department
University of Auckland - Department of Marketing
QUANTITATIVE METHODS IN MARKETING, Second Edition, G. J. Hooley and M. K. Hussey. eds., London: International Thompson Business Press, pp. 92-119, 1999
Research on forecasting is extensive and includes many studies that have tested alternative methods in order to determine which ones are most effective. We review this evidence in order to provide guidelines for forecasting for marketing. The coverage includes intentions, Delphi, role playing, conjoint analysis, judgmental bootstrapping, analogies, extrapolation, rule-based forecasting, expert systems, and econometric methods. We discuss research about which methods are most appropriate to forecast market size, actions of decision makers, market share, sales, and financial outcomes. In general, there is a need for statistical methods that incorporate the manager's domain knowledge. This includes rule-based forecasting, expert systems, and econometric methods. We describe how to choose a forecasting method and provide guidelines for the effective use of forecasts including such procedures as scenarios.
Number of Pages in PDF File: 20
Keywords: Marketing, forecasting, effective forecasting, delphi, conjoint analysis, judgmental bootstrapping, analogies, extrapolation, rule-based forecasting, expert systems, econometric methods, intention, role playingAccepted Paper Series
Date posted: February 7, 2005 ; Last revised: January 1, 2012
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