How Serious are Methodological Issues in Surveys? A Reexamination of the Clarence Thomas Polls
J. Scott Armstrong
University of Pennsylvania - Marketing Department
Case Western Reserve University - Department of Information Systems
Opinion polling procedures allow for reasonable inferences about attitude changes. We examined this contention using surveys about the nomination of Clarence Thomas. In this situation, prior theory allowed us to predict the direction of changes, surveys had been conducted by a number of organizations, and substantial information was available about the methodology used in the surveys. As a result we concluded that the deteriorating opinions of Thomas were real.
Number of Pages in PDF File: 7
Keywords: forecasting, surveys, Clarence Thomas Polls, opinion pollingworking papers series
Date posted: February 7, 2005 ; Last revised: April 4, 2012
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