How Expert are the Experts?

Armstrong, J. Scott

Abstract

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How Expert are the Experts?

J. Scott Armstrong

University of Pennsylvania - Marketing Department

Inc., pp. 15-16, December 1981

Abstract:
Despite all the evidence that vast expertise doesn't produce better forecasts, businessmen and others continue to pay experts as if they were seers. That realization has led me to produce The Seer-Sucker Theory. It says: No matter how much evidence exists that seers do not exist, suckers will pay for seers. I forecast that no one is likely to refute this theory any time soon.

Number of Pages in PDF File: 3

Keywords: Expert forecasting, forecasting value, seer-sucker theory

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Date posted: February 8, 2005 ; Last revised: January 1, 2012

Suggested Citation

Armstrong, J. Scott, How Expert are the Experts?. Inc., pp. 15-16, December 1981. Available at SSRN: http://ssrn.com/abstract=663670

Contact Information

J. Scott Armstrong (Contact Author)

University of Pennsylvania - Marketing Department ( email )

700 Jon M. Huntsman Hall
3730 Walnut Street
Philadelphia, PA 19104-6340
United States
215-898-5087 (Phone)
215-898-2534 (Fax)

HOME PAGE: http://marketing.wharton.upenn.edu/people/faculty/armstrong.cfm