How Expert are the Experts?
J. Scott Armstrong
University of Pennsylvania - Marketing Department
Inc., pp. 15-16, December 1981
Despite all the evidence that vast expertise doesn't produce better forecasts, businessmen and others continue to pay experts as if they were seers. That realization has led me to produce The Seer-Sucker Theory. It says: No matter how much evidence exists that seers do not exist, suckers will pay for seers. I forecast that no one is likely to refute this theory any time soon.
Number of Pages in PDF File: 3
Keywords: Expert forecasting, forecasting value, seer-sucker theoryAccepted Paper Series
Date posted: February 8, 2005 ; Last revised: January 1, 2012
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