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Uncertainty of Outcome and Super 12 Rugby Union Attendance: Application of a General-to-Specific Modeling StrategyP. Dorian OwenUniversity of Otago - School of Business - Department of Economics Clayton R. Weatherstonaffiliation not provided to SSRN Journal of Sports Economics, Vol. 5, No. 4, pp. 347-370, November 2004 Abstract: This paper investigates the determinants of attendance at New Zealand matches in the Super 12 rugby union competition in 1999 to 2001. Emphasis is placed on testing the effects of within-season and match uncertainty of outcome on demand. A general-to-specific model selection approach, using Hendry and Krolzig's automated procedures, is applied to a general model that includes potential economic and sporting demand determinants. The results suggest that factors with a statistically significant effect on attendance mainly reflect habit and tradition, such as previous attendance and traditional rivalries, or are beyond the control of administrators, such as rainfall and team placings.
Keywords: General-to-specific model selection, sports attendance JEL Classification: C5, L83 Accepted Paper SeriesDate posted: February 16, 2005Suggested CitationContact Information
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