The Long-Term Value of Analysts' Advice in the Wall Street Journal's Investment Dartboard Contest

Abstract:     
For nearly thirteen years, the Investment Dartboard column featured the stock recommendations of prominent equity analysts in a contest with the stocks selected by Journal staffers throwing darts. Over the life of the column, investors who rebalanced their portfolios according to the analysts' recommendations achieved higher terminal wealth, but a lower risk-adjusted return, than an investment in an S&P 500 index fund, but investors who bought and held the securities selected by darts achieved the greatest terminal wealth and risk-adjusted return. The darts out-performed the analysts on a nominal and risk-adjusted basis during the recent market decline, with darts and analysts generating higher nominal and risk-adjusted returns than the market index fund.

Number of Pages in PDF File: 14

JEL Classification: G11, G14

Accepted Paper Series