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Fiscal Consolidations in the Central and Eastern European CountriesAntonio AfonsoTechnical University of Lisbon - ISEG (School of Economics and Management); UECE (Research Unit on Complexity and Economics); European Central Bank (ECB) Christiane NickelEuropean Central Bank (ECB) Philipp RotherEuropean Central Bank (ECB) April 2005 ECB Working Paper No. 473 Abstract: We study fiscal consolidations in the Central and Eastern European countries and what determines the probability of their success. We define consolidation events as substantive improvements in fiscal balances adjusting for the impact of cyclical effects. We use Logit models for the period 1991-2003 to assess the determinants of the success of a fiscal adjustment. The results seem to suggest that for these countries expenditure based consolidations have tended to be more successful. By contrast, revenue based consolidations have a tendency to be less successful.
Number of Pages in PDF File: 43 Keywords: Fiscal policy, fiscal episodes, Central and Eastern Europe, Logit models JEL Classification: C25, E62, H62 working papers seriesDate posted: April 26, 2005Suggested CitationContact Information
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