Targeting Relative Inflation Forecast as Monetary Policy Framework for Adopting the Euro
Lucjan T. Orlowski
Sacred Heart University - John F. Welch College of Business
William Davidson Institute Working Paper No. 754
This study proposes relative inflation forecast targeting as an operational framework of monetary policy for adopting the euro by the EU new Member States. This strategy assumes containing differentials between the domestic and the eurozone inflation forecasts as an operational target. A model prescribing the RIFT framework is presented along with a set of appropriate policy indicator variables and instrument rules. The proposed framework advances the strategy based on relatively strict inflation targeting that is currently pursued by some NMS. Several ARCHclass tests in various functional forms are employed for providing preliminary empirical evidence on convergence of inflation differentials relative to the euro area for Poland, Czech Republic and Hungary.
Number of Pages in PDF File: 28
Keywords: Inflation targeting, monetary convergence, euro adoption, EU new Member States
JEL Classification: E42, E52, E61, F36, P24
Date posted: April 4, 2005
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