The Transition Economies: A NATREX Evaluation of Research
Jerome L. Stein
Brown University - Division of Applied Mathematics; CESifo (Center for Economic Studies and Ifo Institute for Economic Research)
CESifo Working Paper Series No. 1449
This paper applies the NATREX model of equilibrium exchange rates to evaluate several key studies of the Central and Eastern European Countries (CEEC) in general, with particular emphasis upon the Czech Republic and Hungary and with references to Poland and Bulgaria. On the basis of the NATREX model, we evaluate several key studies to answer the questions: How can the trends in the real exchange rates of the transition economies be explained? What are sustainable trends in their real exchange rates? To what extent were the real exchange rates misaligned? What are sustainable/equilibrium current account deficits and net investment positions in the medium and in the long-run? What are the policy implications for the transition economies of the NATREX analysis?
Number of Pages in PDF File: 50
Keywords: transition economies, NATREX model, equilibrium real exchange rates, current account deficits, euro area
JEL Classification: F31, F32, P2working papers series
Date posted: April 25, 2005
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