Nasdaq-100 Index Futures: Intraday Momentum or Reversal?
State University in New York / Plattsburgh
City University of New York (CUNY) - Baruch College
Journal of Investment Management, Vol. 3, No. 3, Third Quarter 2005
This paper explores the intraday behavior of the NASDAQ-100 futures index for momentum and reversals. A multiple regression model simultaneously (1) relates today's intraday returns to yesterday's and last night's returns, and (2) estimates how the relationship changes with the signs of yesterday's and last night's return, whether today is in a bull or bear market, and the day of the week. A simplistic view of momentum and reversal proves untenable. There appear to be both momentum and reversal effects and they appear to depend on the signs of yesterday's and last night's returns, and whether today is a Monday. Yesterday's return is associated with both momentum and reversals. Last night's return is predominately associated with reversals. An efficient forecast model is in favor on four intraday periods. This result suggests that there is a structural feature of the futures market in the opening hours.
Keywords: Index futures, overreaction, market efficiency
JEL Classification: G00Accepted Paper Series
Date posted: April 29, 2005
© 2013 Social Science Electronic Publishing, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
This page was processed by apollo4 in 0.281 seconds