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The Neoclassical Theory of Investment in Speculative Markets

Stavros Panageas

University of Chicago - Booth School of Business; National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)

April 2005

In this paper I investigate whether firms' physical investments should react to the speculative overpricing of their securities. I introduce investment subject to quadratic adjustment costs (along the lines of Abel and Eberly [1994]) in an infinite horizon continuous time model with short sale constraints and heterogeneous beliefs (along the lines of Scheinkman and Xiong [2003]). Under standard assumptions, I show that the neoclassical q theory of investment will continue to hold despite the presence of (endogenous) speculative mispricing in the stock market. Strikingly, the welfare implications of the theory will also continue to hold, despite the presence of a speculative bubble. I show how the model provides a new formalization of the notions of short-termist and long-termist investment policies and also how the behavior of investment can be used to disentangle rational and behavioral approaches to so-called asset pricing anomalies.

Number of Pages in PDF File: 57

Keywords: Investment, q-theory, speculation, short sales constraints, heterogenous beliefs, bubbles, mispricing

JEL Classification: E2, G1

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Date posted: May 9, 2005  

Suggested Citation

Panageas, Stavros, The Neoclassical Theory of Investment in Speculative Markets (April 2005). Available at SSRN: http://ssrn.com/abstract=720464 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.720464

Contact Information

Stavros Panageas (Contact Author)
University of Chicago - Booth School of Business ( email )
5807 S. Woodlawn Avenue
Chicago, IL 60637
United States

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National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) ( email )
1050 Massachusetts Avenue
Cambridge, MA 02138
United States
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