China's Economic Growth 1978-2025: What We Know Today about China's Economic Growth Tomorrow

Abstract:     
Views of the future China vary widely. While some believe that the collapse of China is inevitable, others see the emergence of a new economic superpower that increasingly poses a threat to the U.S. This paper examines the economic growth prospects of China over the next two decades. Extrapolating past real GDP growth rates into the future, the size of the Chinese economy surpasses that of the U.S. in purchasing power terms around 2010. Such extrapolations can be supported by standard growth patterns identified in economic development and trade theories (structural change, catching up, and factor price equalization). They can also be supported by an explanation of China's past GDP growth through growth of various labor variables, with a subsequent derivation of future GDP growth based on reliable information about future labor quantity and quality. China's demographic changes and economic growth have a number of implications for China and the world.

Number of Pages in PDF File: 50

Keywords: Economic growth, growth accounting, growth forecasts, development theories, human capital formation, education (all: China)

JEL Classification: O1, O10, O11, O4, O40, O47, O53, J11, O3, I21

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