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Re-emerging Markets

Philippe Jorion

University of California, Irvine - Paul Merage School of Business

William N. Goetzmann

Yale School of Management - International Center for Finance; National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)

April 13, 1996

Yale School of Mangement Working Paper No. F-56

Recent research shows that emerging markets are distinguished by high returns and low covariances with global market factors. These are striking results, because of their immediate implications for the international investor. One key issue is whether these results may be attributed to selection biases. In particular, we only observe markets that have "emerged," where emergence is typically conditioned upon recently exceeding a size threshold. We often do not have information about markets that "submerged" in the past, and then "re-emerged" recently. Most of today's emerging markets are actually re- emerging markets, but data before their last submergence is difficult to obtain. We simulate a simple, general model of global markets, in which markets are priced according to a world factor, but for which returns are only observed if the market capitalization exceeds a threshold at the end of the observation period. The simulations reveal that recently emerged markets display substantial biases in observed returns -- returns are too high. Conditioning upon recent emergence "picks out" markets with low betas. Turning to recent empirical evidence, we show that there are reasons to suspect conditioning biases. In particular, returns immediately after emergence are greater than later on, and than before emergence. We also report that the performance of less-followed submerged markets is typically inferior to that of emerged markets.

Number of Pages in PDF File: 54

JEL Classification: R31

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Date posted: April 14, 1998  

Suggested Citation

Jorion, Philippe and Goetzmann, William N., Re-emerging Markets (April 13, 1996). Yale School of Mangement Working Paper No. F-56. Available at SSRN: http://ssrn.com/abstract=7704 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.7704

Contact Information

Philippe Jorion
University of California, Irvine - Paul Merage School of Business ( email )
Campus Drive
Irvine, CA 92697-3125
United States
949-824-5245 (Phone)
949-824-8469 (Fax)
William N. Goetzmann (Contact Author)
Yale School of Management - International Center for Finance ( email )
165 Whitney Ave.
P.O. Box 208200
New Haven, CT 06520-8200
United States
203-432-5950 (Phone)
203-436-9252 (Fax)
HOME PAGE: http://viking.som.yale.edu

National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)
1050 Massachusetts Avenue
Cambridge, MA 02138
United States
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Citations:  30
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