What Might the Next Emerging-Market Financial Crisis Look Like?
Peter G. Peterson Institute for International Economics
July 1, 2005
Peterson Institute for International Economics Working Paper No. 05-7
This paper addresses the following question: If a financial crisis affecting a group of emerging economies were to take place sometime over the next three years, where would the crisis likely originate, how could it be transmitted to other economies, and which economies would be most affected by particular transmission or contagion mechanisms? A set of indicators is presented to gauge the vulnerability of individual emerging economies to various shocks, including a slowdown in import demand in both China and the United States, a fall in primary commodity prices, increased costs and lower availability of external financing, alternative patterns of exchange rate changes, and pressures operating on monetary and fiscal policies in emerging economies.
Number of Pages in PDF File: 109
Keywords: emerging markets, financial crisis, China slowdown, US current account
JEL Classification: F41, F34, F31, F37working papers series
Date posted: August 8, 2005 ; Last revised: January 28, 2011
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