Abstract

http://ssrn.com/abstract=813284
 
 

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Optimal Policy Projections


Lars E. O. Svensson


Sveriges Riksbank; Stockholm University - Institute for International Economic Studies (IIES); National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER); Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR)

Robert J. Tetlow


Federal Reserve Board

August 2005

FEDS Working Paper No. 2005-34

Abstract:     
We outline a method to provide advice on optimal monetary policy while taking policymakers' judgment into account. The method constructs optimal policy projections (OPPs) by extracting the judgment terms that allow a model, such as the Federal Reserve Board staff economic model, FRB/US, to reproduce a forecast, such as the Greenbook forecast. Given an intertemporal loss function that represents monetary policy objectives, OPPs are the projections - of target variables, instruments, and other variables of interest - that minimize that loss function for given judgment terms. The method is illustrated by revisiting the economy of early 1997 as seen in the Greenbook forecasts of February 1997 and November 1999. In both cases, we use the vintage of the FRB/US model that was in place at that time. These two particular forecasts were chosen, in part, because they were at the beginning and the peak, respectively, of the late 1990s boom period. As such, they differ markedly in their implied judgments of the state of the world in 1997 and our OPPs illustrate this difference. For a conventional loss function, our OPPs provide significantly better performance than Taylor-rule simulations.

Number of Pages in PDF File: 27

Keywords: Optimal monetary policy, forecasts, judgment

JEL Classification: E52, E58

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Date posted: October 5, 2005  

Suggested Citation

Svensson, Lars E. O. and Tetlow, Robert J., Optimal Policy Projections (August 2005). FEDS Working Paper No. 2005-34. Available at SSRN: http://ssrn.com/abstract=813284 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.813284

Contact Information

Lars E.O. Svensson
Sveriges Riksbank ( email )
Brunkebergstorg 11
SE-103 37 Stockholm
Sweden
Stockholm University - Institute for International Economic Studies (IIES) ( email )
Stockholm University
10691 Stockholm, SE-10691
Sweden
National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)
1050 Massachusetts Avenue
Cambridge, MA 02138
United States
Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR)
77 Bastwick Street
London, EC1V 3PZ
United Kingdom
Robert J. Tetlow (Contact Author)
Federal Reserve Board ( email )
20th and C Streets, NW
Washington, DC 20551
United States
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