Global Impacts of Doha Trade Reform Scenarios on Poverty
University of Adelaide - Centre for International Economic Studies (CIES); Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR); World Bank Group - International Trade Unit
World Bank - Policy Research Department
Dominique Van der Mensbrugghe
World Bank Policy Research Working Paper No. 3735
This paper illustrates some of the potential consequences of the WTO's Doha Round of multilateral trade negotiations on incomes and poverty globally. Using the global LINKAGE model to generate changes in domestic and international prices that have a direct impact on factor incomes and consumer prices, we estimate the change in real income at the poverty line that would accompany various reform scenarios. When accompanied by additional information about the elasticity of poverty with respect to income, this provides an estimate of the change in poverty by country. Under most liberalization scenarios considered, unskilled wages rise more than average incomes, but the estimated impact on global poverty is modest, especially if developing countries are unwilling to undertake much reform.
Number of Pages in PDF File: 38
Keywords: Trade policy reform, computable general equilibrium modeling, poverty alleviation
JEL Classification: C68, D58, F17, Q17working papers series
Date posted: October 14, 2005
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