The Congressional Calendar and Stock Market Performance
Reinhold P. Lamb
The University of North Carolina at Charlotte
Asset Management Group
R. Daniel Pace
University of West Florida
William F. Kennedy
University of North Carolina at Charlotte
FINANCIAL SERVICES REVIEW, Vol. 6 No. 1, 1997
This study reports on the existence of a curious calendar effect - a relationship between stock market performance and the schedule of the United States Congress. Almost the entire advance in the market since 1897 corresponds to the periods when Congress is in recess. This is an impressive result, given that Congress is in recess about half as long as in session. Furthermore, average daily returns when Congress is not meeting are almost eight times greater than when Congress is in session. Throughout the year, cumulative returns during recess are thirteen times that experienced while Congress is in session.
JEL Classification: G12, G14
Date posted: April 30, 1997
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