'Moving Median': A New Method of Forecasting

Abstract:     
For hundred years the future was occupying the persons. The ancient Greeks, the Romans, the Egyptians, the Indians, the Chinese and other great ancient cultures, but also the modern, as the English, Germans and the Americans and with the help of the development of technology and computers they are trying and they have improved at a great degree the forecasts for the future, as in the meteorology, in the seismology, in the statistics, in the administration, in the economy. Human was always interested and is always interested still more for the future despite for the past or the present. Where I will be working and under which conditions? I wonder I will be married and if I am I will be separate sometime? They will fire me from my work? Is there any possibility for a nuclear war to be started? And if does become a war which extent will it take and which consequences will have this war? Declare war in my competitor decreasing my prices and how many? Or it is better for me to ally with him, because the losses that I may have in this case where I lose the war will be disastrous? There is also the same effect in the military war. Should I bomb with nuclear weapons or should I think also the pollution of environment that it will be created? Such like these and many other various questions occupy billions persons daily. This research certain does not aim neither aspire to find answers, in all questions, but neither in few. It simply presents an alternative method of forecast for the grant, the private consumption, the gross domestic and national product and still it can be applied, with reserves and always with a lot of trials, in the meteorology and in other sciences.

Number of Pages in PDF File: 63

Keywords: basic econometrics, moving average, moving median, forecasting, Arima, Armed-autoregressive moving median model

JEL Classification: C40

working papers series