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Attention Felons: Evaluating Project Safe Neighborhoods in Chicago

Andrew V. Papachristos
University of Massachusetts at Amherst - Department of Sociology

Tracey L. Meares
Yale University

Jeffrey Fagan
Columbia Law School


2007

U Chicago Law & Economics, Olin Working Paper No. 269
Columbia Public Law Research Paper No. 05-97

Abstract:     
This research uses a quasi-experimental design to evaluate the impact of Project Safe Neighborhood (PSN) initiatives on neighborhood level crime rates in Chicago. Four interventions are analyzed: (1) increased federal prosecutions for convicted felons carrying or using guns, (2) the length of sentences associated with federal prosecutions, (3) supply-side firearm policing activities, and (4) social marketing of deterrence and social norms messages through justice-style offender notification meetings. Using an individual growth curve models and propensity scores to adjust for non-random group assignment, our findings suggest that several PSN interventions are associated with greater declines of homicide in the treatment neighborhoods as compared to the control neighborhoods. The largest effect is associated with the offender notification meetings that stress individual deterrence, normative change in offender behavior, and increasing views on legitimacy and procedural justice. Possible competing hypotheses and directions for individual-level analysis are also discussed.

Keywords: guns, crime, deterrence, compliance, legitimacy

Working Paper Series

Date posted: November 30, 2005 ; Last revised: November 13, 2008

Suggested Citation

Papachristos, Andrew V., Meares, Tracey L. and Fagan, Jeffrey, Attention Felons: Evaluating Project Safe Neighborhoods in Chicago (2007). U Chicago Law & Economics, Olin Working Paper No. 269; Columbia Public Law Research Paper No. 05-97. Available at SSRN: http://ssrn.com/abstract=860685


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Contact Information

Tracey Louise Meares (Contact Author)
Yale University ( email )
127 Wall St.
New Haven, CT 06511
United States
203-432-4074 (Phone)
203-432-4876 (Fax)
Jeffrey Fagan
Columbia Law School ( email )
435 West 116th Street
New York, NY 10027
United States
212-854-2624 (Phone)
212-854-7946 (Fax)
Andrew V. Papachristos
University of Massachusetts at Amherst - Department of Sociology ( email )
Amherst, MA 01003
United States
413-545-0443 (Phone)
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