Abstract

http://ssrn.com/abstract=868716
 
 

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Optimal Debt and Endogenous Growth in Models of International Finance


Jerome L. Stein


Brown University - Division of Applied Mathematics; CESifo (Center for Economic Studies and Ifo Institute)


Australian Economic Papers, Vol. 44, No. 4, pp. 389-413, December 2005

Abstract:     
The International Monetary Fund, the World Bank and the bond rating agencies did not anticipate the crises in Asia 1997-98 and in Argentina 2001. With this statement in mind, we consider some multi-stage inter-temporal stochastic optimisation models in international finance that imply theoretically founded and empirically measurable Early Warning Signals. The mathematical technique is dynamic programming/stochastic optimal control (DP/SOC).

The variables of interest are the optimal foreign debt, consumption, capital and the growth rate of GDP. They are used as benchmarks of economic performance. By comparing the actual debt to the optimal debt we derive a measure of the sustainability of the debt and vulnerability to default problems. The two sources of uncertainty - the productivity of capital and the real interest rate on the foreign debt - are modeled as stochastic processes. Specific applications of the DP/SOC techniques are given for country defaults in Asia and Latin America, and the US current account deficits.

Number of Pages in PDF File: 25

Accepted Paper Series


Date posted: January 7, 2006  

Suggested Citation

Stein, Jerome L., Optimal Debt and Endogenous Growth in Models of International Finance. Australian Economic Papers, Vol. 44, No. 4, pp. 389-413, December 2005. Available at SSRN: http://ssrn.com/abstract=868716 or http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-8454.2005.00268.x

Contact Information

Jerome L. Stein (Contact Author)
Brown University - Division of Applied Mathematics ( email )
Providence, RI 02912
United States
401-863-2143 (Phone)
401-863-1355 (Fax)
CESifo (Center for Economic Studies and Ifo Institute)
Poschinger Str. 5
Munich, DE-81679
Germany
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