Does Political Instability Lead to Higher Inflation? A Panel Data Analysis

Abstract:     
Economists generally accept the proposition that high inflation rates generate inefficiencies that reduce society`s welfare and economic growth. However, determining the causes of the worldwide diversity of inflationary experiences is an important challenge not yet satisfactorily confronted by the profession. Based on a dataset covering around 100 countries for the period 1960-99 and using modern panel data econometric techniques to control for endogeneity, this paper shows that a higher degree of political instability is associated with higher inflation. The paper also draws relevant policy implications for the optimal design of inflation-stabilization programs and of the institutions favorable to price stability.

Number of Pages in PDF File: 16

Keywords: Inflation, volatility, political instability, institutions

JEL Classification: E31, E63

working papers series