The War in Iraq: Should We Have Expected Better Forecasts?
Kesten C. Green
International Graduate School of Business; Ehrenberg-Bass Institute for Marketing Science
J. Scott Armstrong
University of Pennsylvania - Marketing Department
International Journal of Applied Forecasting, No. 2, pp. 50-52, October 2005
Kesten Green and J. Scott Armstrong answer this question by describing experiments they conducted, asking experts as well as university students to make predictions based on some similar situations, using structured analogies and simulated interaction. They were amazed by some of the results.
Number of Pages in PDF File: 3
Keywords: Decisions in conflict, hindsight bias, structured analogies, simulated interaction
JEL Classification: COO, C2
Date posted: January 27, 2006 ; Last revised: December 30, 2011
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