Abstract

http://ssrn.com/abstract=877485
 
 

References (5)



 


 



The War in Iraq: Should We Have Expected Better Forecasts?


Kesten C. Green


International Graduate School of Business; Ehrenberg-Bass Institute for Marketing Science

J. Scott Armstrong


University of Pennsylvania - Marketing Department


International Journal of Applied Forecasting, No. 2, pp. 50-52, October 2005

Abstract:     
Kesten Green and J. Scott Armstrong answer this question by describing experiments they conducted, asking experts as well as university students to make predictions based on some similar situations, using structured analogies and simulated interaction. They were amazed by some of the results.

Number of Pages in PDF File: 3

Keywords: Decisions in conflict, hindsight bias, structured analogies, simulated interaction

JEL Classification: COO, C2

Accepted Paper Series





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Date posted: January 27, 2006 ; Last revised: December 30, 2011

Suggested Citation

Green, Kesten C. and Armstrong, J. Scott, The War in Iraq: Should We Have Expected Better Forecasts?. International Journal of Applied Forecasting, No. 2, pp. 50-52, October 2005. Available at SSRN: http://ssrn.com/abstract=877485

Contact Information

Kesten C. Green (Contact Author)
International Graduate School of Business ( email )
GPO Box 2471
Adelaide South Australia 5001
Australia
+61 8 8302 9097 (Phone)
+61 8 8302 0709 (Fax)
HOME PAGE: http://people.unisa.edu.au/Kesten.Green
Ehrenberg-Bass Institute for Marketing Science ( email )
Australia
HOME PAGE: http://www.marketingscience.info/people/KestenGreen.html
J. Scott Armstrong
University of Pennsylvania - Marketing Department ( email )
700 Jon M. Huntsman Hall
3730 Walnut Street
Philadelphia, PA 19104-6340
United States
215-898-5087 (Phone)
215-898-2534 (Fax)
HOME PAGE: http://marketing.wharton.upenn.edu/people/faculty/armstrong.cfm

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