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Argentina's Pathway Through Financial Crisis


Brad Setser


Roubini Global Economics, LLC; University College London

Anna Gelpern


Georgetown University Law Center

September 12, 2005

Rutgers School of Law-Newark Research Papers No. 016
GEG Working Paper No. 2004/02

Abstract:     
Political support for Argentina's currency board rested on distributing the early gains from ending hyper-inflation and the spending made possible with access to external credit. When these gains were exhausted and external shocks left the peso overvalued, neither Argentina's political system nor its economy could adjust. The needed adjustment went well beyond simple fiscal tightening: it required deciding who would incur the financial losses associated with the deep contraction needed to correct a real over-valuation in a heavily indebted economy. By 2000, Argentina faced the prospect of further economic contraction, a banking crisis and an external sovereign debt crisis. Even if none of the three crises was avoidable, preemptive action might have made one or more of them less severe. Yet preemption was a political orphan - no political constituency in Argentina argued to bring some pain forward for a chance of less pain down the road, and the IMF and G-7 preferred continued financing to the political risk of supporting a new macroeconomic strategy.

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Date posted: February 15, 2006  

Suggested Citation

Setser, Brad and Gelpern, Anna, Argentina's Pathway Through Financial Crisis (September 12, 2005). Rutgers School of Law-Newark Research Papers No. 016; GEG Working Paper No. 2004/02. Available at SSRN: http://ssrn.com/abstract=884225 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.884225

Contact Information

Brad Setser
Roubini Global Economics, LLC ( email )
131 Varick Street, Suite 1005
New York, NY 10013
United States
University College London ( email )
Gower Street
London
United Kingdom
Anna Gelpern (Contact Author)
Georgetown University Law Center ( email )
600 New Jersey Avenue, NW
Washington, DC 20001
United States
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