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Five Open Questions About Prediction MarketsJustin WolfersUniversity of Michigan at Ann Arbor - Department of Economics; The Ford School of Public Policy, University of Michigan; The Brookings Institution; National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER); Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA); Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR); CESifo (Center for Economic Studies and Ifo Institute for Economic Research); Kiel Institute for the World Economy Eric ZitzewitzDartmouth College; NBER February 2006 IZA Discussion Paper No. 1975 Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Working Paper No. 2006-06 Abstract: Interest in prediction markets has increased in the last decade, driven in part by the hope that these markets will prove to be valuable tools in forecasting, decision-making and risk management - in both the public and private sectors. This paper outlines five open questions in the literature, and we argue that resolving these questions is crucial to determining whether current optimism about prediction markets will be realized.
Number of Pages in PDF File: 27 Keywords: prediction markets, information markets, event futures, political forecasting JEL Classification: C9, D7, D8, G1, M2 working papers seriesDate posted: February 16, 2006Suggested CitationContact Information
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