Consumer Inflation Expectations: Survey Questions and Quantification Methods - the Case of Poland

National Bank of Poland Working Paper No. 37

27 Pages Posted: 27 Apr 2006

See all articles by Ewa Stanislawska

Ewa Stanislawska

Economic Institute, Narodowy Bank Polski

Tomasz Lyziak

National Bank of Poland - Bureau of Macroeconomic Research

Date Written: March 2006

Abstract

Qualitative data on inflation perceptions and expectations, as obtained from surveys, can be quantified into numerical indicators of the perceived and expected rates of price change. This paper presents the results of different versions of probability and regression methods, implemented in order to estimate Polish consumer inflation perceptions and predictions, based on monthly consumer surveys. The paper also discusses the limited usefulness of quantitative questions, which occur to be excessively difficult for a significant part of respondents, whose numerical declarations are inconsistent with opinions expressed in a qualitative manner.

Keywords: Inflation expectations, Surveys, Quantification, Poland

JEL Classification: C42, D12, D84

Suggested Citation

Stanislawska, Ewa and Lyziak, Tomasz, Consumer Inflation Expectations: Survey Questions and Quantification Methods - the Case of Poland (March 2006). National Bank of Poland Working Paper No. 37, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=897702 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.897702

Ewa Stanislawska (Contact Author)

Economic Institute, Narodowy Bank Polski ( email )

00-919 Warsaw
Poland

Tomasz Lyziak

National Bank of Poland - Bureau of Macroeconomic Research ( email )

Warsaw
Poland

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