Marketwide Private Information in Stocks: Forecasting Currency Returns
Rui A. Albuquerque
Boston College, Carroll School of Management; Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR); European Corporate Governance Institute (ECGI)
Eva de Francisco
Congressional Budget Office (CBO) - Macroeconomic Analysis Division
Luis Brandao Marques
International Monetary Fund - Monetary and Capital Markets Department
CEPR Discussion Paper No. 5604
We present a model of equity trading with informed and uninformed investors where informed investors act upon firm-specific private information and marketwide private information. The model is used to structurally identify the component of order flow that is due to marketwide private information. Trades driven by marketwide private information display very little or no correlation with the first principal component of order flow. This finding implies that a simple statistical factor is a poor measure of marketwide private information. Moreover, the model suggests that the previously documented comovement in order flow captures mostly common variation in liquidity trades. We find that marketwide private information obtained from equity market data forecasts industry stock returns and foreign exchange returns consistent with Evans and Lyons' (2004a) model of exchange rate determination.
Number of Pages in PDF File: 49
Keywords: Marketwide private information, firm-specific private information, order flow, principal components, currency returns, equity returns
JEL Classification: F31, G11, G14
Date posted: July 5, 2006
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