Abstract

http://ssrn.com/abstract=913564
 


 



Lessons from Thomas Edison's Technological and Social Forecasts


Steven Schnaars


City University of New York


FORESIGHT: International Journal of Applied Forecasting, No. 4, pp. 47-52, June 2006

Abstract:     
Thomas Edison's inventions have had an unparalleled influence on modern life. But Edison was also a technological forecaster, offering his vision of which technologies would (and would not) dominate our lives in the future. Steve Schnaars looks back on Edison's 13 technological and social forecasts to evaluate the inventor's predictive hits and blunders. The main lesson he sees in Edison's technological forecasting is that spreading risk by pursuing multiple paths to future market success is probably a better strategy that trying to predict precisely which technologies will succeed in the future.

JEL Classification: COO, C2

Accepted Paper Series


Not Available For Download

Date posted: July 10, 2006  

Suggested Citation

Schnaars, Steven, Lessons from Thomas Edison's Technological and Social Forecasts. FORESIGHT: International Journal of Applied Forecasting, No. 4, pp. 47-52, June 2006. Available at SSRN: http://ssrn.com/abstract=913564

Contact Information

Steven Schnaars (Contact Author)
City University of New York ( email )
17 Lexington Avenue
New York, NY 10021
United States
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