Using Forecasts of Forecasters to Forecast
Warwick Business School - Finance Group - Financial Econometrics Research Centre
University of Konstanz - Department of Economics & Center of Finance & Econometrics (CoFE)
May 15, 2006
Quantification techniques are popular methods in empirical research to aggregate the qualitative predictions at the micro-level into a single figure. In this paper, we analyze the forecasting performance of various methods that are based on the qualitative predictions of financial experts for major financial variables and macroeconomic aggregates. Based on the Centre of European Economic Research's Financial Markets Survey, a monthly qualitative survey of around 330 financial experts, we analyze the out-of-sample predictive quality of probability methods and regression methods. Using the modified Diebold-Mariano-Test of Harvey, Leybourne & Newbold (1997), we confront the forecasts based on survey methods with the forecasting performance of standard linear time series approaches and simple random walk forecasts.
Number of Pages in PDF File: 27
Keywords: Forecasting Quality, Qualitative Survey Data, Quantification Methods, Linear Time Series Models, Turning Points
JEL Classification: G10,E30,E31,E37,C10,C42working papers series
Date posted: July 17, 2006
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