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Democratic Transitions
David Epstein Columbia University - Department of Political Science Robert Bates Harvard University - Department of Government Jack Goldstone George Mason University; George Mason University - School of Public Policy Ida Kristensen Columbia University Sharyn O'Halloran Columbia University - School of International & Public Affairs Abstract: Przeworski, Alvarez, Cheibub, and Limongi (2000) challenge the key hypothesis in modernization theory: political regimes do not transition to democracy as per capita incomes rise, they argue. Rather, democratic transitions occur randomly, but once there, countries with higher levels of GDP per capita remain democratic. We retest the modernization hypothesis using new data, new techniques, and a three-way rather than dichotomous classification of regimes. Contrary to Przeworski et. al. (2000) we find that the modernization hypothesis stands up well. We also find that partial democracies emerge as among the most important and least understood regime types.
Keywords: development, modernization, polical economy Working Paper SeriesDate posted: July 31, 2006 ; Last revised: October 14, 2009Suggested CitationContact Information
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