Columbia University - Department of Political Science
Harvard University - Department of Government
Jack A. Goldstone
George Mason University - School of Public Policy; RANEPA (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration)
Columbia University - School of International & Public Affairs
Przeworski, Alvarez, Cheibub, and Limongi (2000) challenge the key hypothesis in modernization theory: political regimes do not transition to democracy as per capita incomes rise, they argue. Rather, democratic transitions occur randomly, but once there, countries with higher levels of GDP per capita remain democratic. We retest the modernization hypothesis using new data, new techniques, and a three-way rather than dichotomous classification of regimes. Contrary to Przeworski et. al. (2000) we find that the modernization hypothesis stands up well. We also find that partial democracies emerge as among the most important and least understood regime types.
Number of Pages in PDF File: 33
Keywords: development, modernization, polical economy
Date posted: July 31, 2006
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