Tiresias and the Justices: Using Information Markets to Predict Supreme Court Decisions

Abstract:     
This Article applies the emerging field of information markets to the prediction of Supreme Court decisions. Information markets, which aggregate information from a wide array of participants, have proven highly accurate in other contexts such as predicting presidential elections. Yet never before have they been applied to the Supreme Court, and the field of predicting Supreme Court outcomes remains underdeveloped as a result. We believe that creating a Supreme Court information market, which we have named Tiresias after the mythological Greek seer, will produce remarkably accurate predictions, create significant monetary value for participants, provide guidance for lower courts, and advance the development of information markets.

Keywords: Information markets, Supreme Court, prediction

Accepted Paper Series