The Predictive Power of Price Patterns

Abstract

Using two sets of data, including daily prices (open, close, high and low) of all S&P 500 stocks between 1992 and 1996, we perform a statistical test of predictive capability of candlestick patterns. Out-of-sample tests indicate statistical significance at the level of 36 standard deviations from the null hypothesis, and indicate a profit of almost 1% during a two-day holding period. An essentially non-parametric test utilizes standard definitions of three-day candlestick patterns and removes conditions on magnitudes. The results provide evidence that traders are influenced by price behavior. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first scientific test to provide strong evidence in favor of any trading rule or pattern on a large unrestricted scale.

Keywords: candlestick patterns, statistical price prediction, price pattern, technical analysis

JEL Classification: C12, G12