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The Phasing of Fiscal Adjustments: What Works in Emerging Market Economies?Emanuel BaldacciGovernment of the Italian Republic (Italy) - National Institute of Statistics (Istat) Benedict J. ClementsInternational Monetary Fund (IMF) - Expenditure Policy Division Sanjeev GuptaInternational Monetary Fund (IMF) - Fiscal Affairs Department Carlos Mulas-GranadosGovernment of the Kingdom of Spain - Economic Bureau of the President Review of Development Economics, Vol. 10, No. 4, pp. 612-631, November 2006 Abstract: This paper investigates the political and economic determinants of successful fiscal adjustment in 25 emerging market economies from 1980 to 2001. The results show that large and back-loaded fiscal adjustments have the highest likelihood of success. Fiscal consolidations based on expenditure cuts increase the probability of approaching and achieving fiscal sustainability but are insufficient to maintain it unless accompanied by revenue reforms. Adjustment episodes launched in countries where governments enjoy a parliamentary majority and do not face imminent elections, are found to be more successful. Fiscal consolidations undertaken under IMF-supported programs also have a higher probability of success.
Number of Pages in PDF File: 20 Accepted Paper SeriesDate posted: October 19, 2006Suggested CitationContact Information
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