Model Selection and Paradoxes of Prediction
Princeton University - Department of Economics
January 18, 2005
In this essay we postulate a number of theoretical hypotheses allowing one to resolve in some degree the following two prediction paradoxes: (1) why simple linear models often have an advantage in predictive power over more complex nonlinear models that lead to a better in-sample fit; (2) why combinations of forecasts often increase the predictive power of individual forecasts. We also give a numerical example illustrating our theoretical statements.
Number of Pages in PDF File: 10
Keywords: model selection, forecasting, linear and nonlinear models, combination of forecasts
JEL Classification: C10, C22, C53working papers series
Date posted: November 7, 2006
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