Achieving the Millennium Development Goals in Sub-Saharan Africa: A Macroeconomic Monitoring Framework
University of Manchester - School of Social Sciences
Pennsylvania State University - School of Business Administration; World Bank
Emmanuel Pinto Moreira
Karim El Aynaoui
The World Economy, Vol. 29, No. 11, pp. 1519-1547, November 2006
This paper presents a macroeconomic approach to monitoring progress toward achieving the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) in Sub-Saharan Africa. At the heart of our framework is a macro model which captures key linkages between foreign aid, public investment (disaggregated into education, infrastructure and health), the supply side and poverty. The model is then linked through cross-country regressions to indicators of malnutrition, infant mortality, life expectancy and access to safe water. A composite MDG Indicator is also calculated. The functioning of our framework is illustrated by simulating the impact of an increase in foreign aid to Niger at the MDG horizon of 2015, under alternative assumptions about the degree of efficiency of public investment. Our approach can serve as the building block for Strategy Papers for Human Development (SPAHD), a more encompassing concept than the current Poverty Reduction Strategy Papers.
Number of Pages in PDF File: 29Accepted Paper Series
Date posted: November 10, 2006
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